Poloz Prepared to “Nourish” Economy. Translation: He Will Inflate

Poloz thinks it will be necessary to “nourish” the economy.

To a Keynesian central banker from the EDC, this means “buy assets” i.e. inflate.

The boneheaded idea that this strengthens the economy is characteristic of cranks throughout history.

Currency depreciation cannot ever boost the economy. If Poloz were to announce that he will start expanding rate of growth in the money supply, the outcome on the foreign exchange market would be for other currencies to appreciate versus the loonie. Domestic producers would want to increase exports due to increased international demand, and would borrow from commercial banks to fund production at interest rates lower than otherwise. Resources would shift away from other industries into Canadian export industries. Exporters would record higher profits, but in real terms, the citizens of Canada would be getting fewer imports for each export. Basically, Canada would gain more foreign exchange, but they would get getting fewer real goods in exchange. Canadians in general would therefore become poorer.

And those higher exporter profits? As time goes by, monetary expansion would cause prices to rise and those artificial, subsidized profits would disappear. The end result is a weaker economy where resources have been misallocated due to credit expansion and interference with market exchange rates, and along the way some politically-connected export industries would make a bit of extra money.

Poloz needs to read Mises:

The much talked about advantages which devaluation secures in foreign trade and tourism, are entirely due to the fact that the adjustment of domestic prices and wage rates to the state of affairs created by devaluation requires some time. As long as this adjustment process is not yet completed, exporting is encouraged and importing is discouraged. However, this merely means that in this interval the citizens of the devaluating country are getting less for what they are selling abroad and paying more for what they are buying abroad; concomitantly they must restrict their consumption. This effect may appear as a boon in the opinion of those for whom the balance of trade is the yardstick of a nation’s welfare. In plain language it is to be described in this way: The British citizen must export more British goods in order to buy that quantity of tea which he received before the devaluation for a smaller quantity of exported British goods.

The Canadian dollar will surely suffer under Poloz’s governance.

Politics Is the Lowest Form of Human Activity

PROOF.

Mourn for the Lost Penny

Every Canadian hated pennies. Even homeless street beggars hated getting pennies. If someone dropped a penny, they wouldn’t even bother to pick it up. Every Canadian seems happy that the penny is gone.

Sadly, Canadians do not realize how this loss is truly a tragedy, because it unequivocally shows how the government and the Bank of Canada have abused the monopoly over money. If you go to the BoC website, you can see that since 1914 the Canadian dollar has lost 95% of its value.

This is the inevitable result of the age-old credo of monetary cranks and inflationists. Mises wrote:

A very popular doctrine maintains that progressive lowering of the monetary unit’s purchasing power played a decisive role in historical evolution. It is asserted that mankind would not have reached its present state of well-being if the supply of money had not increased to a greater extent than the demand for money. The resulting fall in purchasing power, it is said, was a necessary condition of economic progress. The intensification of the division of labor and the continuous growth of capital accumulation, which have centupled the productivity of labor, could ensue only in a world of progressive price rises. Inflation creates prosperity and wealth; deflation distress and economic decay.

All this time, rather than having pennies lose value until they must be eliminated, pennies should have been increasing in value. We should have been able to buy more stuff with pennies today than 50 years ago. That is how a free economy with a stable money supply works. Money is saved and invested into more production. Workers create more goods, and so the monetary unit can purchase more stuff. Instead, the Canadian government and its central bank have distorted the economy and redistributed wealth by means of monetary policy. Monopolies are always bad, and a monopolization of money is the most dangerous of all.

The death of the penny should be a blaring wake-up call to Canadians. The Bank of Canada should be shut down, the government should abolish legal tender laws, and Canadians themselves should decide what their money should be. Otherwise, expect to someday bid farewell to nickels, dimes, and even loonies as the government continues its destruction of our currency.

— Read more at the Mises.ca

BOOK REVIEW: Ludwig von Mises – Human Action (Scholar’s Edition)

Human Action: The Scholar’s Edition

There is no way I can say all that I want to say in this review. Murray Rothbard has aptly said: “Every once in a while the human race pauses in the job of botching its affairs and redeems itself by producing a noble work of the intellect. . . . To state that Human Action is a `must’ book is a greater understatement. This is the economic Bible of the civilized man.”

I would take Rothbard’s praise further. This is not only the single most important economic tome ever, but also the pathbreaking, definitive exposition of praxeology, the correct basis for social sciences and also necessarily the foundation for epistemology. Only a few living economists of the “Austrian” school of economics seem to have truly absorbed the Misesian “praxeologic” method.

Mises’ contribution to economics cannot be understated. In basing economics on the axiomatic status of action, Mises established the ultimate foundation for economic science. The fact that humans act — that is, human beings act purposefully to reach subjectively chosen ends — is, of course, irrefutable (to argue against the axiom of action is itself an action). This, however, may seem like a trivial observation. Humans act, big deal? Why is it so important? Its importance is in praxeology’s methodology, which uses deductive chains of reasoning to realize the implications. In understanding what is implied by action — values, ends, means, choice, cost, preference, profit, and loss — economic science can be deduced logically, so it is a purely an a priori science where economic laws tell describe apodictically real relationships in the world. In this way, key economic principles follow from the action axiom (as well as a few general, explicit assumptions about the empirical reality in which the action occurs), such as the law of diminishing marginal utility, how taxation changes time-preference schedules, the counterproductive nature of interventionism, involuntary unemployment, and so on. So long as the logic deriving the principles is correct, then economic laws are a priori-valid, and empirical testing has no bearing on them.

This book initially appeared in a difficult time, when positivist methodology and the Keynesian paradigm were dominant. Thus, upon Human Action‘s release it was mostly derided and ignored by the mainstream, rather than studied and criticized. It did, however, gain notoriety among academic circles for rebuilding economic science from the ground up, all the while plowing through the epistemological shortcomings of previous standards. It also sold surprisingly well for a nearly 1000 page book about economics.

Mises provided considerable ammunition for institutional critique in Human Action. He uncovered the socialist calculation problem — a central planning authority has no rational way to allocate resources for production without market prices — and this is an insurmountable hurdle for any state-run economy. In fact, when analyzed fully, it shows that any government intervention in the economy results in market distortion and inefficiency. In essence, nothing can ever be provided more efficiently by the government nor can the government do anything to make the market more efficient. Murray Rothbard, who was of course Mises’ student, explored this thoroughly in his critique of interventionism, Power and Market.

Lee Carlson’s shamefully inane review can be wholly disregarded. He believes economics can benefit from aping the methods of physics, when actual physicists and engineers recognize that is foolish. Carlson fallaciously appeals to authorities, and it does not change the fact that the search for mathematical constants that describe human choice is futile. If it is possible to learn and have different ideas in the future, which cannot be denied without contradiction, then you cannot know in advance how one will act based on new ideas. That’s why economics must deal with the formal implications of choice, and not the formation of specific choices. Mises understood this. Few other economists do.

In regards to the reviews criticizing Mises extreme rationalism, they would do well to better understand Mises’ methodology and the epistemological problems of economic science. He spends nearly 200 pages early in the book discussing this, but people are lazy and think the rationalist foundations of economics is “boring” or somehow not relevant.

To Mises, ultimately, all economic laws were derived from the incontestable axiom that, trivially enough, humans act, choosing between alternatives in a finite universe. In understanding the effects of different forms of economic activity, the economist must determine correct theory by relying on human choice as the guiding factor. To consider the effects of a change brought about by action, we need recognize that by taking certain choices, the opportunities for other choices are destroyed. And because the relationship between these universes resulting from different choices are a priori related to the others, there is no need to rely on empirical confirmation for correct theory. The corpus of economic science is essentially a system of counterfactual laws where empirical testing is completely useless.

It would be foolish to argue that consumption need not be preceded by production, or that that which is consumed now cannot be consumed later, just as it would be foolish to argue that money inflation does not raise prices higher than otherwise, just as it would be nonsensical to argue that 1+1=3, just because of an “observation.” Like a mathematical proof, all economic laws must be refuted by identifying errors in the axiomatic-deductive chain, not finding “conflicting” data. This is also the only truly valuable way to understand complex economic phenomena. For example, were rising real incomes in Canada 1950-1990 a result of increased taxes, or despite of more taxes? Would they have been higher still with higher or lower taxes? The traditional economist is utterly helpless, because they have actually rejected economic theory in favor of a misguided empiricist prejudice. Praxeology is more valuable than any mathematical model because of of its method. They require no qualifying considerations (“all things being equal” or “ceteris paribus”) and are always true.

Finally, the original issue of the Scholar’s Edition was a BEAUTIFUL book. It really shows how a physical book can be damn sexy in a way that ebooks and such can never be. From the Mises Institute:

“The Scholar’s Edition is printed on stunning, pure white, acid-free Finch Fine 50 lb. paper; carefully set in the readable and beautiful Janson typeface, including the 1954 index, the most comprehensive ever done; covered in spectacular dark azure Odyssey cloth from Prague, the finest natural-finish, moisture-resistance book fabric in the world; secured by the finest caliper Binders board; protected by an impressive slipcase from the famous Old Dominion company; graced with antique-soapstone endpapers from Ecologic Fibers; casebound with the strongest Smyth-sewn signatures; fitted at head and foot with silken endbands, thick wrapped for durability; complemented with a double-faced, satin-finish ribbon marker; stamped with brilliant, non-tarnishing gold foil from Japan’s Nakai International; and produced at R.R. Donnelly’s famed Crawfordsville Bindery, where’s America’s finest books are assembled.”

Pretty delicious, actually!

The Scholar’s Edition also features an exhaustively compiled index and — most importantly — restores all the ambiguities and deleted material from the third and fourth editions. In particular, Yale University Press’ complete butchery of the 1963 edition is now nothing more than a bad memory.

UTTERLY ESSENTIAL FOR ALL CIVILIZED HUMAN BEINGS.

(This review was originally published in 2004.)

Purchase Human Action from Amazon.com for a ridiculously low price

Economic Ignoramus Stephen Poloz to Replace Carney as Bank of Canada Governor

So far, we don’t know much about Mr Poloz on a philosophical level.

Based on the little we do know, I think he is a bad choice. He has a PhD in economics, so he likely knows very little about economics.

We also know he has spent most of his life as a bureaucrat. Most of his career has been “public service” (cough cough) at the BoC and Export Development Canada. I’m sure he made lots of friends in the export industry there. Friends who will really appreciate a subsidy in the form of monetary inflation.

Back in late 2008, he wrote a commentary on the financial crisis. In essence, he appeals to animal spirits, like all Keynesians who are baffled by economic law. He blames it on nothing more than a change in psychology following the 9/11 attacks. Everyone had a “live for the moment” attitude, he says, and ultimately this created the housing bubble.

The first sign of failure in economic analysis is a reliance on nonscientific pop-psychology. He completely fails to identify the source of bubbles and account for why business cycles occur. The culpability of central banks is nowhere challenged. He pleads agnostic about the ability of economists to understand the cause of bubbles at all. He does not understand the Austrian theory of the business cycle.

Based on these facts, I can safely conclude he is an Keynesian/inflationist/mercantilist. Sort of like, well, all central bankers. He may prove to be better or worse than Carney. Only time will tell.

Ultimately, it matters only a little who is the head of the Bank of Canada. The system as such is the problem, and not so much the individual people in charge.

— Read more at BoC’s website — 

Insider Buying of Junior Mining Stocks at Record Levels

Owning stocks in the junior mining sector is like holding a stick of soggy dynamite. With a good trade, your portfolio gets a growth explosion. With a bad trade, you explode.

These shares have taken a beating in 2013, creating huge opportunities for value. Insiders have no compunctions about scooping up shares at these low prices.

The INK Research Venture indicator was at 715% on April 30. This means that in the past 60 days, more than seven stocks on the TSX:V have insider buying for every stock with insider selling. Historically, this tends to foreshadow a rally in those prices.

In early March, this indicator was ‘only’ at 400%, so there has been a large increase. The current number is very close to its all time peak of 735% back on October 27, 2008. This preceded the bottoming-out of the Venture market in December 2008 by about six weeks. You may recall how that was a time when many people thought the world was going to end.

But wait. There is also a shorter-term 30-day Venture indicator. It hit 1229% on April 30.

Then there is the INK Gold Stock Indicator. This tracks insider buying on Canadian-listed gold stocks. There are more than 10 stocks with insider buying for every stock with insider selling. This indicator hit an all-time high of 1046% on April 26.

To be a successful investor, you have to be gutsy and buy when prices are low. Maybe insider buying patterns give some encouragement to acquire more soggy dynamite for your portfolio.

Read more in INK’s report

Did a Canadian Boxer Help the Boston Bomber Down the Road to Terrorism?

William Plotnikov. Remember him? He was a Russian-Canadian boxer from Toronto who converted to Islam, then went to fight with Islamic militias against the Russians. He was killed by security forces in Dagestan last year.

It appears that he may have been acquainted with Boston Bomber Tamerlan Tsarnaev, who was also an amateur boxer. Plotnikov gave Tsarnaev’s name to Russian agents when he was interrogated in 2010. They had communicated online, and it it highly plausible that the two had met at some point, perhaps when Tsarnaev had attended a boxing event in Toronto (where his aunt also lived).

It has been reported that Tsarnaev traveled overseas to fight in Dagestan, but he fled back to the US immediately after Plotnikov’s death. Did Tsarnaev lose his nerve to be a front-line Jihadist after his buddy had been killed?

Even more scandalous is the possibility that Plotnikov and Tsarnaev may have received support and training from Georgian authorities. This is being investigated in Georgia now. The previous Georgian government, which had fought a war with Russia in 2008, was very interested in contesting Russian influence in Dagestan.

Justin Raimondo says: “The Georgian connection points to a classic case of ‘blowback.’ A covert operation conducted against the Russian government, originally, that got out of hand – and came back to bite the hand that fed it.” No joke. The Tsarnaev family received $100,000 in government welfare.  

— Read more about this at The Telegraph, Time, Daily Mail, and Izvestia — 

RRSPs Are a Government Trap

Tax season. Ugh. Around this time of year, you always get a lot of people chattering about how RRSPs are totally awesome.

Mises wrote that a fundamental category of human action is preferring goods now to goods later. That is why present goods cannot be traded for future goods unless they are discounted (hence the phenomenon of interest).

The government relies on present-orientation when it comes to tax-deferred retirement accounts like RRSPs. The government reduces the taxpayer’s suffering now — tax deferral — for the sake of a nebulous future benefits that may not materialize. As the saver puts more and more money into the account, the reluctance to withdraw the funds grows. Hence, RRSPs are a trap.

Everyone hopes they will be in a lower tax bracket when they withdraw from their RRSP. They always assume tax rates won’t be higher, and inflation will not push them into higher tax brackets. They assume won’t be victims of capital markets gone bad.

Think about what happens if there is an emergency while the markets are being hammered. Your assets will drop significantly in value, and yet if you are forced to sell them to raise money in a situation where you are already in a high tax bracket, you then you have to pay the taxes on your accrued capital gains/whatever at the same time. It would be pretty painful.

The government gets a sweet deal by having people siphon money into these tax-deferral (not tax-free) plans:

  • Annual reports to CRA about what you own
  • Regulatory control over what is an authorized investment
  • A massive supply of assets that can nationalized in a serious financial crisis
  • The government can change the tax code so you’ll be in a higher tax bracket than expected when you withdraw
  • Inflation will push you into higher brackets as time goes on
  • It becomes harder to escape the more money you put into it

Such accounts also drive greater levels of resources into government-approved investments. The over-investment this fosters will bring and even harsher day of reckoning: when a significant number of people decide to retire and start eating into their retirement accounts, the prices on these assets will fall quickly. There will not be enough bids to cover the offers at those high prices. Younger savers will fear long term implications and withdraw early. There will be too much risk and the entire RRSP system will be exposed as a dangerous scam.

Some will deny the possibility that the government would ever confiscate the assets in retirement accounts. But why wouldn’t they? There is ample historical precedent for confiscation. Heck, the United States nationalized its mortgage industry to “save the economy” just a few years ago. Why wouldn’t Western democracies do so with retirement accounts, under the pretense of protecting citizens’ hard-earned savings?

Of course, the confiscation would be sneaky. In a major crisis, retirement accounts would be devastated. The high (nominal) gains for long-term savers would diminish. A government would declare that the safety of people’s retirement cannot be left to the heartless whims of the market. Therefore, the government would nationalize those accounts and replace the assets with “loonie bonds” or some such thing. The bonds would have a “guaranteed” return of, say, 3%.

Those bonds would not be marketable and represent nothing more than an accounting trick by the government. Since the government would be broke, the retirement accounts would have to be covered with general revenues. It would simply be a huge transfer of wealth from younger people to older people. This completely distorts the natural state of society, where older people help the younger people, because they have more accumulated wealth.

Tax-deferral can be useful, but it is not risk-free. It is not even that favorable compared to the non-registered alternative. Your capital gains outside of the RRSP are taxed at 50% of your marginal rate. You can also offset capital gains with capital losses, which is not possible in the RRSP. You can also consider the option of selling losers at the end of the year to offset gains, and if they are still good investments, just buy them back after time frame required by the superficial loss rule.

A TFSA is a much better saving tool. You pay no tax on your returns (but you can’t offset with losses).

CONCLUSION

Do you trust the government? If so, then maybe the RRSP is right for you. If you lack such trust, then be careful about dumping piles of money into one. You’ll probably be regret it someday. Take responsibility for your after-tax income and don’t delude yourself into thinking the government is trying to do you a favor.

Gold Delivery Denied! Paper Gold Is a House of Cards

A rich American man had gold in a segregated account in a Swiss bank. Or so he thought.

When he tried to get delivery of his gold, the bank refused. It said the central bank wouldn’t let them do it, because it was more than 200,000 euros worth of gold. So instead, the bank would settle with cash.

What’s going on here?

I don’t think it’s anti-terrorism and anti-money laundering regulations, as the bank says.

Over the years, banks have borrowed non-interest-bearing gold from gold owners, including central banks, at 1% or so, then sold it to buy higher-yielding bonds. It was a reliable trade for a long time. But as the banks have refinanced those loans, gold prices have climbed and many of those debt instruments have fallen in value. They cannot buy back the gold on the market at today’s prices, and the bonds in which they invested have suffered and cannot be sold without a loss.

The day of reckoning comes when these gold shorts cannot pay back the gold owners. This means many investors, including central banks that lent out their gold, will not get their gold back. Like our American friend who tried to take delivery from the Swiss bank.

Imagine the fallout when this spreads. The paper gold market is like a stick of dynamite. When it blows up, you don’t want to be holding it. Yet when this happens, the holders of actual physical gold will be very happy.

— Read more about this story at King World News — 

Trusting Bureaucrats and Politicians Will Cost You Money

Before the financial crisis in Cyprus, the Cypriot president assured voters that the government would never seize their bank deposits.

Then guess what happened?

On April 4, CMR asked if the Canadian government would have a Cyprus-like response to a banking crisis, as was implied by the language of pages 144-145 of the new budget.

The government is trying to assure us now that they won’t steal your deposits to prop up an insolvent bank. Yet Mark Carney himself wouldn’t rule out the possibility.

“Canadian institutions have substantial unsecured debt obligations in the wholesale market and as well as other classes of capital, and they have substantial capital as well, so once you stack all of that up, regardless of whether one would look to reach into it … it’s hard to fathom why it would be necessary,” the Bank of Canada governor said.

“Hard to fathom”? That is not exactly what I’d call “comforting language.” Especially because this is from a guy who is wrong nearly every time he opens his mouth.

He admitted the queue of capital buffers for banks would likely include some types of deposits, but did not elaborate.

Yet Carney also referred to a response from Flaherty’s office, which stated:

“The ‘bail-in’ scenario described in the budget has nothing to do with consumer deposits and they are not part of the ‘bail-in’ regime. Under a ‘bail-in’ arrangement, a failing financial institution has to tap into its own special reserves or assets (which it has been forced to put aside) to keep its operations going.”

“Nothing to do with consumer deposits.” Okay.

Remember Rockwell’s Law: always believe the opposite of what state-officials tell you. If they say you have nothing to worry about, then you should start worrying.

But let’s say for the sake of argument deposits are supposed to be excluded from any proposed “bail-in” scenario. What is the bank going to do? Canadian banks are capitalized about as well as Lehman Brothers before things went bad.

Consider TD. They have $818 billion in assets. They have $768 billion in liabilities. Very little equity is available to withstand losses in asset value or income. All the big Canadian banks are like this. A tremendous amount of special reserves need to be put aside to withstand even a 10% drop in the value of a Canadian bank’s assets.

There will be more crises. Canadian banks cannot survive a crisis without a government bailout. Don’t take any comfort in anything coming out of Ottawa and the BoC.

— Read more about this story at CBC —