Trouble in the Workers’ Paradise

Sweden is regarded by many as the ideal balance between capitalism and socialism.

A lot of people genuinely believe it is a “Workers’ Paradise.” They worship the “Nordic model” as something all Western democracies should emulate.

Recent events show that the model of a lavish welfare statism cannot erase deeper economic and cultural divisions. Right now, Sweden is seeing the worst riots in years as immigrant youths trash everything in sight, and clash with mobs of immigrant-haters. Cars are torched. Rocks are thrown at police and firefighters. Schools have been set ablaze.

Riots in Stockholm, Sweden - 22 May 2013

Sweden has experienced various riots in the last few years. Usually these cool off after a day.

The latest riots have gone on for a week. The situation evokes memories of the 2005 Paris riots, or the 2011 London riots.

But why should anyone want to riot in Sweden? Isn’t everything perfect?

The disturbances erupted in Husby last weekend, after police shot dead an elderly man brandishing a machete inside his house. Angered at what they saw as police heavyhandedness, youths torched cars and buildings and stoned police and firefighters. Police were then forced to draft in extra manpower from outside Stockholm as the trouble spread to other immigrant-dominated suburbs of the capital and towns such as Orebro in central Sweden, where 25 masked youths set fire to a school on Friday night.

According to one rioter:

“In the beginning it was just a bit of fun,” said one young man in his early 20s who did not wish to be named. He was one of a Husby group of 30-40 youths that battled with police.

“But then when I saw the police charging through here with batons, pushing women and children out of the way and swinging their batons, I got so damned angry.”

The Swedes just can’t understand why this is happening.

“We have tried harder than any other European country to integrate, spending billions on a welfare system that is designed to help jobless immigrants and guarantee them a good quality of life,” said Marc Abramsson, leader of the National Democrats Party. “Yet we have areas where there are ethnic groups that just don’t identify with Swedish society. They see the police and even the fire brigade as part of the state, and they attack them. We have tried everything, anything, to improve things, but it hasn’t worked. It’s not about racism, it’s just that multi-culturalism doesn’t recognise how humans actually function.”

It’s fair to wonder, if this can happen in Sweden, why not everywhere?

(Maybe not Canada. Instead, we riot over god damn hockey games.)

Multiculturalism has never worked anywhere, ever, in all of human history. It’s not because different groups of people can’t get along. Trade and peace is natural, even between people of different religion, race, culture, or ethnicity. The blame instead rests on the institution of the state itself.

Rather than erase conflict between different groups, as many like to believe, welfare statism aggravates the conflict between them. This happens because the state encourages not cooperation and respect between people, but rather dependence on its ability to transfer property from one group to another. This always breeds resentment between people who are more or less on the dole than other people.

The state cannot create harmony between people. It creates only discord.

— Read more at The Telegraph and Yahoo News

Chinese Slowdown Puts a Drag on Energy Markets

Oil is the world’s most important commodity. Its market provides a good indication of where the economy is going.

The price of oil fell for five days before jumping today because of strong consumer confidence numbers in the US. The push down had been largely due to news from China.

Chinese manufacturing activity fell in May after months of slower growth. Its PMI hit a seven-month low of 49.6. A value below 50 indicates a contraction.

Oil consumption in OECD countries has fallen the last few years. In the rest of the world, it is has grown. The biggest of these consumers is China.

China is the world’s major exporter of manufactured goods. The decline in manufacturing activity implies the world’s slowing demand. This in turn will result in a reduced demand for energy.

China is a major factor in the marginal demand for oil. The oil price is not set by speculators, but supply and demand. Producers pump as much as they can. Chinese demand — in no small part driven by radical monetary expansion — is largely responsible for the boom in oil prices, from $20 a barrel in 2001 to current levels.

Chinese slowdown will cause oil prices to fall. When the economy is growing, oil prices rise because there is greater demand for energy. Prices fall when demand falls. This is elementary economics. The price of oil will decline.

— Read more at Marketwatch

Canada Needs Its Own “IRS Scandal”

While Canada is abuzz with the “Duffy Scandal,” the American news has been making a big deal about the “IRS scandal.”In this case, the IRS targeted groups with “conservative”-sounding names for special scrutiny.

Canada needs to have a scandal like this.

One of the most interesting parts of the IRS scandal is how the outrage is not divided along the lines of partisanship, as expected. Not only “right-wingers” are unhappy. Even diehard Obama-loving “leftists” like Chris Matthews, who would normally leap to defend “their guy” at any opportunity, are displeased.


Another high-profile leftist, Jon Stewart, is also extremely annoyed.


Why would leftists care if some goofy right-wing organization received extra scrutiny at the IRS?

The answer to this question is very important. The existence of the modern welfare state depends on the American public’s tolerance of the IRS’ privacy and property invasions. If this tolerance is ever substantially compromised, the massive state apparatus itself would be in jeopardy.

This is why Canada needs its own “IRS scandal” with the Canada Revenue Agency. The CRA is the most feared government agency in Canada. It is a huge part of our lives. People who yearn for big government know that the CRA must be perceived as “fair.” Otherwise, the modern welfare/warfare system would be threatened.

A big “unfairness” scandal at the CRA would really damage the image of Canada’s federal government. If a few cases were exposed where the CRA demonstrated systematic unfairness, those cases would be seen as representative of the agency’s activities. A large part of the public would doubt the wisdom and justice of the government. Their tolerance of the CRA would be diminished.

Some may recall the CRA bribery scandal. As far as scandals go, this probably didn’t do Canada much good. The “scandal” was about “corrupt auditors” taking bribes to help people pay lower taxes. As a scandal, it assumes the validity of the CRA rather than posing a challenge to it.

The CRA exists to extract wealth from Canadians with the threat of force. To the extent that scandals, large or small, call into question the validity of the government’s incredible taxing power, they are good.

That the only security men can have for their political liberty, consists in their keeping their money in their own pockets, until they have assurances, perfectly satisfactory to themselves, that it will be used as they wish it to be used, for their benefit, and not for their injury.

Lysander Spooner

We Are Close to the Top of the Market

Here is The Economist‘s May 11 cover.

Uh oh.

Does Capitalism Need the State?

Some guy named “William R Gillies” has been trying to troll CMR on Twitter for the past week or so.

He is failing, because he doesn’t know what’s he’s talking about. He is a “Cartographer, Psychogeographer, Historicist.” All historicists struggle with understanding economics.

Mr Gillies is no different. He does not understand economics and the nature of markets. What is his problem? He believes that capitalism and markets can only exist if there is a state to enforce private property rights. This basically sums up his position:

He is completely wrong. Since this is a widely held view, however, it is worth discussing.

Firstly, let’s define our terms. Generally, capitalism is taken to mean “private ownership of the means of production.” This is a reasonable definition. We can elaborate a little bit by saying capitalism is the social order characterized by respect and recognition of private property. The market is the outcome of capitalism — essentially, people producing stuff and trading with each other. And the state? It is a territorial monopoly on the use of force.

Capitalism exists despite the state, not because of it. There are four basic arguments that refute the notion that capitalism depends on the state to exist.

(1) TRADING WITHOUT THE STATE

A simple thought experiment can helpfully highlight Mr Gillies’ basic error.

Robinson Crusoe, alone on an island, doesn’t have to worry about issues like “private property” or “markets.” It’s just him and maybe a few animals. He cannot trade with anyone. His use of resources affects no other economic agents on the island, because there are none. It is an autarkic economy. He spends his days catching fish and eating them. Property rights are literally a non-issue.

The arrival of Friday considerably changes the situation. Suppose Robinson Crusoe decides to trade some of his fish for some of Friday’s berries. This would literally create a market economy. It’s just a small and simple one.

The only way trade is possible is if both recognize the property rights of the other. Transferring ownership is what trade means. Otherwise there can be no trade. Either no exchanges will take place, or a hegemonic relationship will arise if one actor uses violence against the other.

If trade is possible in this situation, and there is no state, then a market economy does not depend on the state. Since trade clearly is possible in this situation, then it follows the market economy depends not on the state, but something else A modern economy is more complex and its division of labor much wider than the “two people on an island” economy, but in principle nothing changes between them.

(2) CATEGORICAL ERROR

The idea that the market economy depends on the state gets things entirely backwards. The state depends on the market, not the other way around. To say otherwise is to say the host depends on the parasite, rather than the parasite depends on the host. It just makes no sense.

The state literally cannot exist unless there is something to tax (because it produces nothing). The market, on the other hand, can arise spontaneously and exists anywhere people are trading goods and ideas with one another. The state depends on the market. The market does not rest on “state violence” as Mr Gillies claims. The state rests on state violence, the way the robber depends on robber violence. Just because there might be property rights violations where there is no state does not mean property rights depend on the state, because the state has property rights violations too. If the market must exist before the state, and the market depends on private property, it’s hard to understand how only the state can establish property rights.

It is simply incoherent to claim that the state, the very nature of which necessitates interference with property rights, is the source of property rights. All states without exception tax their subjects and outlaw competing institutions of compulsion. To say that the greatest, most systematic violator of private property rights is the only way to protect private property rights is simply absurd, and reveals a level of cognitive dissonance so severe it must cause migraines. The state fails the number one requirement of a valid lawgiver: that it follow its own laws.

The very idea of the state as a protector of property rights is contradictory. Hoppe writes:

Yet how can there be better protection for A and B, if S must tax them in order to provide it? Is there not a contradiction within the very construction of S as an expropriating property protector? In fact, is this not exactly what is also—and more appropriately—referred to as a protection racket? To be sure, S will make peace between A and B but only so that he himself in turn can rob both of them more profitably. Surely S is better protected, but the more he is protected, the less A and B are protected from attacks by S.

We should at this point offer some other remarks on the Hobbesian thesis, that there cannot be peaceful relations without a Sovereign to enforce agreements. Hobbes’ argument asserts that in the “state of nature”, A and B cannot cooperate, so they must agree to have S tax them and resolve their disputes. If this is true, then ostensibly property rights depend on the state.

But who enforces the agreement between S, A and B? After all, S is still a human and unable to form agreements without a Sovereign according to the Hobbesian thesis. So there would need to be another enforcer, S*. But then who enforces this agreement? You would need another enforcer, S**. And then you would in turn need to enforce this with S***, and S****, and so on into an infinite regress. To escape this conclusion, it must be conceded that agreements and property relations are possible without the state, otherwise no agreement or trade could ever arise (this argument comes from Anthony de Jasay).

(3) EMPIRICAL EXAMPLES

The essence of Mr Gillies’ position is private property rights are “not natural” and “must be enforced.” Sure, rights need to be enforced. So what? It is a non sequitur to take that claim then say it follows that only the state can enforce rights. There is nothing inherent in private property rights that require enforcement to come from the state.

There are historical cases in which the enforcement of property rights occurs with the state. Yet there are also examples without the state. This is extremely important. Basically, all legal systems deal with property rights, and if there have been non-state legal systems, Mr Gillies must be wrong. A legal system of enforcing rights does not inherently require the state at all.

Remember, the state is specifically a territorial monopoly on the use of coercion. Yet throughout history there has been enforcement of rights without such monopolists. Most of the Anglo-Saxon law grew out of voluntarily adopted norms, rather than authoritarian decree. Off the top of my head, here are some other random examples of customary, non-monopolistic legal systems: ancient Ireland, the Law Merchant, many other forms of commercial law, the Yurok Indians, the Ifugao, the Kapauku Papuans, medieval Iceland, and eBay.

(4) THE A PRIORI OF COMMUNICATION AND ARGUMENTATION

Most critically, the proposition “Private property rights depend on the state” is proven wrong by the act of saying it. For it is not possible to argue anything without presupposing that one has private property in one’s body. This is logically antecedent to the formation of any system of rights enforcement. It’s what makes it possible to have a rational standard by which to judge a system of rights enforcement in the first place.

CONCLUSION

Mr Gillies simply doesn’t understand the relationships between capitalism and the state. He relies on a tissue of fallacies believed by those whose understanding of reality is completely distorted by historicist nonsense. His confusion is so profound that he doesn’t even come close to understanding property rights, capitalism, or markets. He doesn’t understand the foundations of the market economy at all.

For further reading:

Hans-Hermann Hoppe — A Theory of Socialism and Capitalism

Jörg Guido Hülsmann – The A Priori Foundations of Property Economics

Follow Canadian Market Review on Twitter here.

UPDATE: For the record, Mr Gillies has seen this article. After reading it, he swiftly retreated from the debate. He was clearly in over his head.

I didn’t want him to think I was being unfair, so naturally I offered him a chance to reply. Instead, he went crying to his friends on Twitter for support. To them he made made a bunch of inane comments, like “Austrian School econ also underpins a fair bit of the neoliberal consensus” (lol wut), and “Must be a Randian.” Right. Because anyone who defends free market anarchism from an rationalist, objective idealist position — pretty much the opposite of statist, egoist, empiricist Rand  — must be Randian. Which… makes no sense at all.

He also said that “plenty” of “economists” have “refuted” everything I wrote. Of course, he provided no names or links or anything. I am pretty confident I have seen those arguments and anticipated them. Otherwise, I would gladly respond to any specific arguments. His behavior is to be expected from someone who understands nothing about economics and history.

The Most Important Fact About April’s Employment Numbers

The unemployment rate for April was unchanged at 7.2%. Enough full-time jobs were added to keep the rate from rising. If you look at the mainstream headlines, most of them focus on the fact that the economy added 12,500 jobs.

Compared to March’s numbers — which were the worst since February 2009 — some might think, “Well, that’s pretty good! It’s nice that the rate didn’t go up.”

Actually, the numbers are quite awful. The new jobs were all in the public sector: 34,000 of them. The private sector lost 20,000 jobs.

The most important fact about April’s employment numbers is this: Fewer people are going into productive tax-paying work than non-productive tax-consuming work. These numbers imply a weakening economy. Government jobs must be paid for with private sector production.

The economy is down for about 13,000 net jobs for 2013 so far. If you look back since April 2012, there is job growth. Yet looking closer, we see that the government has added 94,000 jobs in that period year. Private sector jobs? Only 10,000.

It is important to understand that just “creating jobs” should not be a goal of policy. Any job is not inherently valuable. Instead, what matters is creating wealth.

The buying and not-buying of consumers normally determines what should be produced, but no one “buys” government services. Public sector jobs earn wages and that money gets spent in the economy, but the consumer does not voluntarily pay the government for the goods and services produced by these jobs. Therefore, it cannot be said that government jobs provide any economic value at all.

Practically speaking, this accounts for why all governments are characterized by incompetence, arrogance, inefficiency, carelessness, and poor service. Government jobs are just subsidies for production with no regard to the consumer.

For the past year, the parasite has been growing at the expense of a progressively weaker host. This cannot continue if we want to see a stronger Canadian economy.

— Read more at CBC.ca —

When Will Interest Rates Rise?

Everyone wants to know: when will long-term interest rates rise?

Are we so sure they aren’t rising now?

Let’s consider a few recent events: Microsoft recently raised $2 billion selling bonds. Soon after, Apple raised $17 billion selling bonds. These companies have historically shied away from borrowing long-term money. Microsoft has not sold debt since 1996. The last time Apple sold debt was 20 years ago.

They both have huge amounts of cash, but the interest rates on these instruments were ridiculously low for both companies. Investors wanted a slightly higher rate from Apple than from Microsoft. In any case, both normally debt-averse companies believe that now is the time to lock in low rates. These companies must believe that rates will stay low or rise. Either way, they do well at the expense of bondholders. If rates rise, then they have cheap borrowed money with which to cash in on the higher rates. They borrow at 4-5% and make double, triple, or more on that money. If rates fall, then they can buy back the bonds and reissue the debt at lower rates.

When asked about Apple bonds specifically, Warren Buffett said: “We’re not buying bonds of Apple — we’re not buying bonds of anybody. It has nothing to do with them being a tech company. The yields are too low.” Berkshire Hathaway has been selling corporate bonds over the last two years.

I had a spasm of intuition in reading about the above events. “Are we at or around the bottom”? It seems to be a fair interpretation that “smart money” is selling bonds, and “dumb money” is buying bonds. Look at corporate debt — can those rates seriously go lower?

FRED Graph

The economy is bad, but is it Great Depression bad? Apparently not, so maybe the rates can’t go any lower… for now.

This year, it seems those rates have been pushed up. Is fear of inflation creeping in there?

Look at the 30 year Treasury yield, which has fallen to insane lows post-2008. Yet at the right end of the graph, we see the rate trending upward despite Operation Twist.

Chart forTreasuryYield30Years (^TYX)

I am talking about long-term rates. Short-term rates are basically going nowhere. As I wrote last year, I believe this is because there is fear and “regime uncertainty.”

FRED Graph

Even so, data seems to indicate that real rates are climbing back into positive territory.

fed real int

CONCLUSION

While people can describe the conditions under which rates will rise, they cannot reliably predict when this will occur. It seems assured that anytime someone says with confidence, “Rates cannot get any lower,” the rates still get lower. If you want an example that baffles investors endlessly, look at Japan. There is a reason shorting Japanese government bonds is a trade known as the “widow-maker.”

I don’t want to be one of “those” guys, but I think we are around the bottom on long-term interest rates for this stage of the business cycle. I’m not making a “hard” prediction on this, because I think a recession will push rates down further. I think that recession will occur soon. However, it is theoretically possible to muscle through the recession with expansionary monetary policy and keep the “boom” going. The Fed is in full offensive mode. Short-term and long-term rates will rise if the Fed continues this policy and banks are no longer willing to stockpile excess reserves. In Canada, the BoC has been buying debt for Harper and the Conservatives, resulting in net increases in assets for two years. I interpret this to mean that both American and Canadian central banks are desperate to hold off recession.

“The yields are too low.”

Politics Is the Lowest Form of Human Activity

PROOF.

Mourn for the Lost Penny

Every Canadian hated pennies. Even homeless street beggars hated getting pennies. If someone dropped a penny, they wouldn’t even bother to pick it up. Every Canadian seems happy that the penny is gone.

Sadly, Canadians do not realize how this loss is truly a tragedy, because it unequivocally shows how the government and the Bank of Canada have abused the monopoly over money. If you go to the BoC website, you can see that since 1914 the Canadian dollar has lost 95% of its value.

This is the inevitable result of the age-old credo of monetary cranks and inflationists. Mises wrote:

A very popular doctrine maintains that progressive lowering of the monetary unit’s purchasing power played a decisive role in historical evolution. It is asserted that mankind would not have reached its present state of well-being if the supply of money had not increased to a greater extent than the demand for money. The resulting fall in purchasing power, it is said, was a necessary condition of economic progress. The intensification of the division of labor and the continuous growth of capital accumulation, which have centupled the productivity of labor, could ensue only in a world of progressive price rises. Inflation creates prosperity and wealth; deflation distress and economic decay.

All this time, rather than having pennies lose value until they must be eliminated, pennies should have been increasing in value. We should have been able to buy more stuff with pennies today than 50 years ago. That is how a free economy with a stable money supply works. Money is saved and invested into more production. Workers create more goods, and so the monetary unit can purchase more stuff. Instead, the Canadian government and its central bank have distorted the economy and redistributed wealth by means of monetary policy. Monopolies are always bad, and a monopolization of money is the most dangerous of all.

The death of the penny should be a blaring wake-up call to Canadians. The Bank of Canada should be shut down, the government should abolish legal tender laws, and Canadians themselves should decide what their money should be. Otherwise, expect to someday bid farewell to nickels, dimes, and even loonies as the government continues its destruction of our currency.

— Read more at the Mises.ca

TSX Loses All Gains for 2013

The Canadian stock market was hit pretty hard as oil fell and gold got hammered. At the close, gold was down nearly $75 USD. The TSX lost all of its 2013 gains over the last few days.

I have predicted that North America will face recession this year, so a falling TSX is consistent with that. An economic correction is especially hard on capital goods industries and raw materials.

I also believe it is a reasonable expectation for gold to fall to $1200-$1300/oz as the economic error cycle matures. Then, when a panic hits, and Fed and other central banks will respond with further inflation, and the gold price will rise in response to that.

A commodity broker says: “the argument for gold as a safe haven or protection against inflation just isn’t there . . . It doesn’t look too good for gold.” This assumes there another crisis will not occur, and central banks will not inflate in response. At some point central banks will have to stop inflating to prevent currency collapse and preserve their nations’ banks, yes. Yet, I do not think that time is nigh because we have not yet seen massive consumer price inflation result from the monetary expansion since the ’08 financial crisis.

Read more at Financial Post.