Canada Needs Its Own “IRS Scandal”

While Canada is abuzz with the “Duffy Scandal,” the American news has been making a big deal about the “IRS scandal.”In this case, the IRS targeted groups with “conservative”-sounding names for special scrutiny.

Canada needs to have a scandal like this.

One of the most interesting parts of the IRS scandal is how the outrage is not divided along the lines of partisanship, as expected. Not only “right-wingers” are unhappy. Even diehard Obama-loving “leftists” like Chris Matthews, who would normally leap to defend “their guy” at any opportunity, are displeased.


Another high-profile leftist, Jon Stewart, is also extremely annoyed.


Why would leftists care if some goofy right-wing organization received extra scrutiny at the IRS?

The answer to this question is very important. The existence of the modern welfare state depends on the American public’s tolerance of the IRS’ privacy and property invasions. If this tolerance is ever substantially compromised, the massive state apparatus itself would be in jeopardy.

This is why Canada needs its own “IRS scandal” with the Canada Revenue Agency. The CRA is the most feared government agency in Canada. It is a huge part of our lives. People who yearn for big government know that the CRA must be perceived as “fair.” Otherwise, the modern welfare/warfare system would be threatened.

A big “unfairness” scandal at the CRA would really damage the image of Canada’s federal government. If a few cases were exposed where the CRA demonstrated systematic unfairness, those cases would be seen as representative of the agency’s activities. A large part of the public would doubt the wisdom and justice of the government. Their tolerance of the CRA would be diminished.

Some may recall the CRA bribery scandal. As far as scandals go, this probably didn’t do Canada much good. The “scandal” was about “corrupt auditors” taking bribes to help people pay lower taxes. As a scandal, it assumes the validity of the CRA rather than posing a challenge to it.

The CRA exists to extract wealth from Canadians with the threat of force. To the extent that scandals, large or small, call into question the validity of the government’s incredible taxing power, they are good.

That the only security men can have for their political liberty, consists in their keeping their money in their own pockets, until they have assurances, perfectly satisfactory to themselves, that it will be used as they wish it to be used, for their benefit, and not for their injury.

Lysander Spooner

The European Central Bank Is Deflating

A lot of people talk on and on about how all the central banks are printing money.

But, to the dismay of radical Keynesians, central banks are not always printing money all the time.

The ECB has spent the last several months deflating.

ecb assets

This will put pressure on Europe. It will be interesting to see how long this lasts, given how bad things seem to be over there.

Are Chinese Women Smarter Than Warren Buffett?

Warren Buffett is one of the world’s most successful investors. He is also a well-known critic of gold as an investment. He believes buying gold is “stupid.”

Middle-aged Chinese women did not get university economics or finance degrees. They do not understand the difference between economic schools of thought. But they have lived under brutal Communism. They have suffered extreme poverty. They understand what it takes to preserve wealth under tyranny.

These Chinese women are buying gold. More than Indian fathers. From a recent report:

On Sunday afternoon, a microblogger in Beijing logged into Sina Weibo, China’s leading social media platform, to gossip about the “auntie” next door. It’s a broad term of respect for an older woman, and his followers understood precisely what he meant when he tweeted, “The auntie next door used all of her retirement savings to buy gold. When asked what she’d do if prices keep dropping, she replied that if everyone kept buying gold, the price wouldn’t drop…”

This might strike a conservative investor as reckless. But in China, where gold has long been a national obsession, a mid-April record crash in global gold prices has been seen as an unprecedented buying opportunity. According to reports in China, Chinese have purchased 300 tons of gold worth more than $16 billion since the crash.

These people are not trading gold futures on margin. They are allocating their savings to precious metals.

Photos of crowds packing jewelry shops and emptying their shelves are now regular features in the news media. On Monday, a police officer in Shanxi province tweeted, in regard to his actual aunt: “My aunt’s family has a gold store, and my colleague who’s in the market for some gold for his mother asked if I could get him a cheap price. I asked, and my aunt said first come and take a look to see if anything catches your eye. But at the moment the display cases are empty, and they are unable to get new inventory. All I can say is that the power of the Chinese is frightening.”

China’s voracious appetite for gold is long-standing. At Chinese jewelry stores, the spot price for gold is always prominently displayed. Calculators and scales are never out of a customer’s reach. Gold jewelry is desirable, but so are gold bars, and any jewelry store that considers itself full-service will stock ingots of various weights. (In April, an investor in Guangzhou bought 44 pounds of the bars, according to a local newspaper.) Special commemorative bars in various weights and designs were issued for the 2008 Beijing Olympics and the 2010 World Expo in Shanghai.

The current rush is unusual in two ways. The first is its epic scale. The second is that, according to both traditional and social media, aunties are doing most of the buying.

This activity is widespread in China. When something is widespread in a country with 1.35 billion people, it’s a real phenomenon.

Social media tends to take a less critical, and more personal, view of the aunties. Depictions involving mother-daughter interactions, in particular, are very common. On Saturday, Zhongxiao Fang Fang Fang, the handle for a microblogger in Shenzhen, tweeted: “Yesterday my mother called me to say the price of gold has fallen, and to ask me to go to Hong Kong to buy gold. I said I didn’t want any. She very calmly said it would be good to prepare a dowry so I can get married!”

Reported elsewhere:

Perhaps the majority of Americans cannot comprehend the unusual feelings Chinese people have toward gold and silver. They’ve never considered that rather than being afraid to invest in gold, the Chinese are more afraid that they won’t possess gold. Maybe what Chinese aunties care about is not the price of gold tomorrow, their desire is perhaps nothing more than to buy gold, to delight in gold, to hold it. Chinese aunties’ gold investment strategies are simple and unsophisticated, they just “buy what they want.”

What do the Chinese aunties know that Warren Buffett doesn’t?

Read more at Bloomberg

Bank of Canada Should Raise Rates to Pop Bubbles, Says Former Carney Advisor

Paul Masson, former advisor to Mark Carney, says the Bank of Canada should raise interest rates and pop the housing and debt bubbles.

He says years of low interest rates have distorted the economy and driven people to take higher risks. The accumulation of debt has left Canadians and their institutions stretched thin, ill-prepared to withstand the impact of another financial crisis.

Mr Passon correctly describes our situation.

The Bank of Canada could raise rates very quickly by selling assets. It will definitely not do this, because it would cause a depression. All talk about “maybe” raising rates “in the future” is just that: talk.

Should the BoC raise rates? Well, the Bank of Canada should be closed down, so really all of its assets should be sold. Central banks exist to empower governments and the elite at the expense of everyone else.

But in the context of having the BoC and Canadian dollars, I am sympathetic to the argument that the BoC shouldn’t really do anything. It would be reasonable to leave the money supply as it is and let the market determine interest rates from there. The BoC shouldn’t be jacking the rates around, whether to raise them or lower them. Let the market set interest rates free of further invention. This would give us a bit more time to prepare for the crash, versus an active contraction of the BoC’s balance sheet. “Laissez-faire.”

— Read more at The Financial Post

We Are Close to the Top of the Market

Here is The Economist‘s May 11 cover.

Uh oh.

Does Capitalism Need the State?

Some guy named “William R Gillies” has been trying to troll CMR on Twitter for the past week or so.

He is failing, because he doesn’t know what’s he’s talking about. He is a “Cartographer, Psychogeographer, Historicist.” All historicists struggle with understanding economics.

Mr Gillies is no different. He does not understand economics and the nature of markets. What is his problem? He believes that capitalism and markets can only exist if there is a state to enforce private property rights. This basically sums up his position:

He is completely wrong. Since this is a widely held view, however, it is worth discussing.

Firstly, let’s define our terms. Generally, capitalism is taken to mean “private ownership of the means of production.” This is a reasonable definition. We can elaborate a little bit by saying capitalism is the social order characterized by respect and recognition of private property. The market is the outcome of capitalism — essentially, people producing stuff and trading with each other. And the state? It is a territorial monopoly on the use of force.

Capitalism exists despite the state, not because of it. There are four basic arguments that refute the notion that capitalism depends on the state to exist.

(1) TRADING WITHOUT THE STATE

A simple thought experiment can helpfully highlight Mr Gillies’ basic error.

Robinson Crusoe, alone on an island, doesn’t have to worry about issues like “private property” or “markets.” It’s just him and maybe a few animals. He cannot trade with anyone. His use of resources affects no other economic agents on the island, because there are none. It is an autarkic economy. He spends his days catching fish and eating them. Property rights are literally a non-issue.

The arrival of Friday considerably changes the situation. Suppose Robinson Crusoe decides to trade some of his fish for some of Friday’s berries. This would literally create a market economy. It’s just a small and simple one.

The only way trade is possible is if both recognize the property rights of the other. Transferring ownership is what trade means. Otherwise there can be no trade. Either no exchanges will take place, or a hegemonic relationship will arise if one actor uses violence against the other.

If trade is possible in this situation, and there is no state, then a market economy does not depend on the state. Since trade clearly is possible in this situation, then it follows the market economy depends not on the state, but something else A modern economy is more complex and its division of labor much wider than the “two people on an island” economy, but in principle nothing changes between them.

(2) CATEGORICAL ERROR

The idea that the market economy depends on the state gets things entirely backwards. The state depends on the market, not the other way around. To say otherwise is to say the host depends on the parasite, rather than the parasite depends on the host. It just makes no sense.

The state literally cannot exist unless there is something to tax (because it produces nothing). The market, on the other hand, can arise spontaneously and exists anywhere people are trading goods and ideas with one another. The state depends on the market. The market does not rest on “state violence” as Mr Gillies claims. The state rests on state violence, the way the robber depends on robber violence. Just because there might be property rights violations where there is no state does not mean property rights depend on the state, because the state has property rights violations too. If the market must exist before the state, and the market depends on private property, it’s hard to understand how only the state can establish property rights.

It is simply incoherent to claim that the state, the very nature of which necessitates interference with property rights, is the source of property rights. All states without exception tax their subjects and outlaw competing institutions of compulsion. To say that the greatest, most systematic violator of private property rights is the only way to protect private property rights is simply absurd, and reveals a level of cognitive dissonance so severe it must cause migraines. The state fails the number one requirement of a valid lawgiver: that it follow its own laws.

The very idea of the state as a protector of property rights is contradictory. Hoppe writes:

Yet how can there be better protection for A and B, if S must tax them in order to provide it? Is there not a contradiction within the very construction of S as an expropriating property protector? In fact, is this not exactly what is also—and more appropriately—referred to as a protection racket? To be sure, S will make peace between A and B but only so that he himself in turn can rob both of them more profitably. Surely S is better protected, but the more he is protected, the less A and B are protected from attacks by S.

We should at this point offer some other remarks on the Hobbesian thesis, that there cannot be peaceful relations without a Sovereign to enforce agreements. Hobbes’ argument asserts that in the “state of nature”, A and B cannot cooperate, so they must agree to have S tax them and resolve their disputes. If this is true, then ostensibly property rights depend on the state.

But who enforces the agreement between S, A and B? After all, S is still a human and unable to form agreements without a Sovereign according to the Hobbesian thesis. So there would need to be another enforcer, S*. But then who enforces this agreement? You would need another enforcer, S**. And then you would in turn need to enforce this with S***, and S****, and so on into an infinite regress. To escape this conclusion, it must be conceded that agreements and property relations are possible without the state, otherwise no agreement or trade could ever arise (this argument comes from Anthony de Jasay).

(3) EMPIRICAL EXAMPLES

The essence of Mr Gillies’ position is private property rights are “not natural” and “must be enforced.” Sure, rights need to be enforced. So what? It is a non sequitur to take that claim then say it follows that only the state can enforce rights. There is nothing inherent in private property rights that require enforcement to come from the state.

There are historical cases in which the enforcement of property rights occurs with the state. Yet there are also examples without the state. This is extremely important. Basically, all legal systems deal with property rights, and if there have been non-state legal systems, Mr Gillies must be wrong. A legal system of enforcing rights does not inherently require the state at all.

Remember, the state is specifically a territorial monopoly on the use of coercion. Yet throughout history there has been enforcement of rights without such monopolists. Most of the Anglo-Saxon law grew out of voluntarily adopted norms, rather than authoritarian decree. Off the top of my head, here are some other random examples of customary, non-monopolistic legal systems: ancient Ireland, the Law Merchant, many other forms of commercial law, the Yurok Indians, the Ifugao, the Kapauku Papuans, medieval Iceland, and eBay.

(4) THE A PRIORI OF COMMUNICATION AND ARGUMENTATION

Most critically, the proposition “Private property rights depend on the state” is proven wrong by the act of saying it. For it is not possible to argue anything without presupposing that one has private property in one’s body. This is logically antecedent to the formation of any system of rights enforcement. It’s what makes it possible to have a rational standard by which to judge a system of rights enforcement in the first place.

CONCLUSION

Mr Gillies simply doesn’t understand the relationships between capitalism and the state. He relies on a tissue of fallacies believed by those whose understanding of reality is completely distorted by historicist nonsense. His confusion is so profound that he doesn’t even come close to understanding property rights, capitalism, or markets. He doesn’t understand the foundations of the market economy at all.

For further reading:

Hans-Hermann Hoppe — A Theory of Socialism and Capitalism

Jörg Guido Hülsmann – The A Priori Foundations of Property Economics

Follow Canadian Market Review on Twitter here.

UPDATE: For the record, Mr Gillies has seen this article. After reading it, he swiftly retreated from the debate. He was clearly in over his head.

I didn’t want him to think I was being unfair, so naturally I offered him a chance to reply. Instead, he went crying to his friends on Twitter for support. To them he made made a bunch of inane comments, like “Austrian School econ also underpins a fair bit of the neoliberal consensus” (lol wut), and “Must be a Randian.” Right. Because anyone who defends free market anarchism from an rationalist, objective idealist position — pretty much the opposite of statist, egoist, empiricist Rand  — must be Randian. Which… makes no sense at all.

He also said that “plenty” of “economists” have “refuted” everything I wrote. Of course, he provided no names or links or anything. I am pretty confident I have seen those arguments and anticipated them. Otherwise, I would gladly respond to any specific arguments. His behavior is to be expected from someone who understands nothing about economics and history.

The Most Important Fact About April’s Employment Numbers

The unemployment rate for April was unchanged at 7.2%. Enough full-time jobs were added to keep the rate from rising. If you look at the mainstream headlines, most of them focus on the fact that the economy added 12,500 jobs.

Compared to March’s numbers — which were the worst since February 2009 — some might think, “Well, that’s pretty good! It’s nice that the rate didn’t go up.”

Actually, the numbers are quite awful. The new jobs were all in the public sector: 34,000 of them. The private sector lost 20,000 jobs.

The most important fact about April’s employment numbers is this: Fewer people are going into productive tax-paying work than non-productive tax-consuming work. These numbers imply a weakening economy. Government jobs must be paid for with private sector production.

The economy is down for about 13,000 net jobs for 2013 so far. If you look back since April 2012, there is job growth. Yet looking closer, we see that the government has added 94,000 jobs in that period year. Private sector jobs? Only 10,000.

It is important to understand that just “creating jobs” should not be a goal of policy. Any job is not inherently valuable. Instead, what matters is creating wealth.

The buying and not-buying of consumers normally determines what should be produced, but no one “buys” government services. Public sector jobs earn wages and that money gets spent in the economy, but the consumer does not voluntarily pay the government for the goods and services produced by these jobs. Therefore, it cannot be said that government jobs provide any economic value at all.

Practically speaking, this accounts for why all governments are characterized by incompetence, arrogance, inefficiency, carelessness, and poor service. Government jobs are just subsidies for production with no regard to the consumer.

For the past year, the parasite has been growing at the expense of a progressively weaker host. This cannot continue if we want to see a stronger Canadian economy.

— Read more at CBC.ca —

European Union Wants to Tax Heavy Crude from Oil Sands

The European Union is falling apart. It is desperate for money. The bureaucrats in Brussels will tax anything they can.

Now the EU wants to modify its fuel quality directives, so that refiners who use oil that is “too dirty” (according to bureaucrats) must pay a tax.

Joe Oliver, the Natural Resource Minister of Canada, thinks this amounts to specifically targeted tax on Canadian oil-sands product. He says Canada will sue the EU at the World Trade Organization if they implement the changes, because the oil-sands crude isn’t any “dirtier” than many other crude imports which are not subject to the tax.

Firstly, let me note the hypocrisy when an official from Harper’s government whines about tariffs, while Harper’s government loves tariffs. “Oh yeah, taxing our stuff is bad; taxing your stuff is okay.” Typical government knavery.

On a more general level, yes the EU fuel quality directives and its associated penalties are bad for the economy. They are bad for Europe and bad for Canada. They reduce production of the taxed good and divert resources to government approved fuels. The government is in principle incapable of knowing to what extent a given quality of oil should be used.

Oil sands production is “dirty”, sure. The industry has a lot of flaws. Really, the CO2 emissions aren’t even a big deal, although that’s what everyone focuses on. But the environmental situation is still very screwed up, because Alberta is essentially a mini-petro-state. Property rights and laws of tort can rarely protect the environment because virtually all the pollution takes place on government land.

Even so, that is true of most oil. There is very little “clean” oil where you just turn on the tap and get light, sweet, succulent crude with minimal impact on the earth. Most of it is heavy and sour and difficult to get. Due to inept government regulation and interference with property rights, its production is environmentally problematic. So the European tax seems to be not just destructive, but arbitrary.

If the WTO agrees with Canada that the fuel directives constitutes an unjustified tax, they can’t force them to change it. It just means the Canadian government can put their own tariffs up to retaliate. That is bad for everyone. It would be better to just accept one dumb tax over which one has no controlnthan implement another dumb tax to go along with it. If the Canadian oil producer finds it harder to sell its oil, that’s already bad enough. Why should the Canadian consumer also be punished? It makes no sense, and only a politician or a shyster would advocate this.

Read more at Market Wire

Bank Assets As a Percentage of GDP

And you thought the American banks were too big to fail!

When Will Interest Rates Rise?

Everyone wants to know: when will long-term interest rates rise?

Are we so sure they aren’t rising now?

Let’s consider a few recent events: Microsoft recently raised $2 billion selling bonds. Soon after, Apple raised $17 billion selling bonds. These companies have historically shied away from borrowing long-term money. Microsoft has not sold debt since 1996. The last time Apple sold debt was 20 years ago.

They both have huge amounts of cash, but the interest rates on these instruments were ridiculously low for both companies. Investors wanted a slightly higher rate from Apple than from Microsoft. In any case, both normally debt-averse companies believe that now is the time to lock in low rates. These companies must believe that rates will stay low or rise. Either way, they do well at the expense of bondholders. If rates rise, then they have cheap borrowed money with which to cash in on the higher rates. They borrow at 4-5% and make double, triple, or more on that money. If rates fall, then they can buy back the bonds and reissue the debt at lower rates.

When asked about Apple bonds specifically, Warren Buffett said: “We’re not buying bonds of Apple — we’re not buying bonds of anybody. It has nothing to do with them being a tech company. The yields are too low.” Berkshire Hathaway has been selling corporate bonds over the last two years.

I had a spasm of intuition in reading about the above events. “Are we at or around the bottom”? It seems to be a fair interpretation that “smart money” is selling bonds, and “dumb money” is buying bonds. Look at corporate debt — can those rates seriously go lower?

FRED Graph

The economy is bad, but is it Great Depression bad? Apparently not, so maybe the rates can’t go any lower… for now.

This year, it seems those rates have been pushed up. Is fear of inflation creeping in there?

Look at the 30 year Treasury yield, which has fallen to insane lows post-2008. Yet at the right end of the graph, we see the rate trending upward despite Operation Twist.

Chart forTreasuryYield30Years (^TYX)

I am talking about long-term rates. Short-term rates are basically going nowhere. As I wrote last year, I believe this is because there is fear and “regime uncertainty.”

FRED Graph

Even so, data seems to indicate that real rates are climbing back into positive territory.

fed real int

CONCLUSION

While people can describe the conditions under which rates will rise, they cannot reliably predict when this will occur. It seems assured that anytime someone says with confidence, “Rates cannot get any lower,” the rates still get lower. If you want an example that baffles investors endlessly, look at Japan. There is a reason shorting Japanese government bonds is a trade known as the “widow-maker.”

I don’t want to be one of “those” guys, but I think we are around the bottom on long-term interest rates for this stage of the business cycle. I’m not making a “hard” prediction on this, because I think a recession will push rates down further. I think that recession will occur soon. However, it is theoretically possible to muscle through the recession with expansionary monetary policy and keep the “boom” going. The Fed is in full offensive mode. Short-term and long-term rates will rise if the Fed continues this policy and banks are no longer willing to stockpile excess reserves. In Canada, the BoC has been buying debt for Harper and the Conservatives, resulting in net increases in assets for two years. I interpret this to mean that both American and Canadian central banks are desperate to hold off recession.

“The yields are too low.”